Saturday, August 15, 2009

Explaining Rich Rod Optimism (in depth)

Whether it be Michigan fans, Michigan State fans, or Ohio State fans, people are understandably pessimistic when it comes to the future of Michigan football. I'm on the other end of the spectrum. I am firmly "All In" for Michigan, and I expect nothing but great things from Rich Rodriguez. But, why? After all, Michigan only won 3 games last year amidst a slew of transfers. Perhaps you don't know the whole story. Maybe the media isn't reporting the entire story. So, why am I optimistic? Allow me to explain.


Past History

You can look at numerous examples of guys who have taken over a program, changed it, and failed. Bill Callahan tried to turn Nebraska into a West Coast Offense and failed. There are also plenty of examples of coaches who have struggled in their first years, and gone on to see great success. Pete Carroll went 6-6 in his first year at USC. Bob Stoops went 7-5 in his first year at Oklahoma. Jim Tressel went 7-5 in his first year at Ohio State.

Since you can find multiple examples of both, it is more important to look at the individual cases. Jim Tressel also went 2-9 in his first year at Youngstown State before leading them to four 1-AA National Championships.

Accordingly, let's look at Rich Rodriguez's history.

Before Rodriguez arrived at Glenville State, they had not won a conference championship since 1958. It was as bad a program as you'll find. Glenville State's records in Rich Rod's first three years were 1-7-1, 4-5-1, and 6-4. In his fourth year, Glenville State won 10 games, starting a streak of four consecutive conference championships.

From Glenville State, Rodriguez took the offensive coordinator job at Tulane. In his first year, Tulane went 7-4. In his second year, Tulane went undefeated (12-0) and quarterback Shaun King became a star and was subsequently drafted into the NFL.



Rodriguez followed Tommy Bowden to Clemson in 1999. In 1999, Clemson was 6-6. In 2000, Clemson went 9-3 as quarterback Woody Dantzler slowly turned into a star and Heisman candidate.



After his years of success, Rodriguez took the job at West Virginia in 2001. In his first year, West Virginia struggled and went 3-8 (1-6). By comparison, in 2008 Michigan went 3-9 (2-6). In his second year, West Virginia improved greatly, went 9-4, and made a bowl game. When Rodriguez got his stud quarterback in 2005 with Pat White, West Virginia went 11-1 and beat Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.



Rich Rodriguez's coaching career has shown a clear trend.

1. Struggle the first year during an adjustment period.
2. Get a stud quarterback to develop.
3. Improve rapidly.

Michigan fulfilled #1 with their 3-9 record in 2008. They have Tate Forcier, Denard Robinson and Devin Gardner (in 2010) to fulfill #2. It's fair to assume that #3 will happen in the near future, considering Rodriguez's past history.




The Spread

Today, the spread offense has become widely popular and is used in many different ways. The many variations of the offense is something that is often overlooked. The Patriots run the spread offense, but they pass the ball forty times a game. Oklahoma ran a similar offense in 2008. Rich Rodriguez was impressed enough with Oklahoma's offense last year that he and the Michigan coaches visited Norman to learn from the Oklahoma coaches. Rodriguez is not one to settle, the offense is constantly evolving.

At Tulane and Clemson, Rodriguez's offenses ran the ball 54% of the time in his first year. At West Virginia, the offense ran the ball 57% of the time. In 2008, Michigan also ran the ball 57% of the time. At each stop, the percentage of running plays have gradually increased. This is largely because Rodriguez implements the system slowly because the zone-read offense that Rodriguez runs is a very complex system. Ask Urban Meyer.

Meyer consistently credits Rodriguez with teaching him the run spread offense that Meyer currently runs at Florida. But, if you watch Meyer's first year at Florida closely, you won't see the same playbook you see today. Meyer learned from Rodriguez that you can't implement the entire system at once. Meyer added the more complex plays in years two and three, just as Rodriguez suggested.



This explains the dull offense that Michigan fans complained about in 2008. It seemed, at times, that Michigan's offense ran only five or six plays. Well, they did. In 2009, the quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers will all have more options in those plays. Being more comfortable with the offense, they will be allowed to make reads based on the defenses they are facing. When everyone gets on the same page, the offense is scary good. Ask the Big East.


But, why not adjust?

I have little doubt that if Ryan Mallett, Mario Manningham, and Adrian Arrington would have stayed at Michigan, Rodriguez would have adjusted appropriately. But, they all left for various reasons. I have no problem with that, they were certainly entitled to do so.



So, with Steven Threet and Nick Sheridan, who really don't fit any successful offensive system well, Rodriguez was limited with what he could do. The offensive line was young and the wide receiver depth was pathetic. So, what benefit would have come from running a pass-style spread offense in 2008? I can't imagine Threet or Sheridan would have been any more effective in a pass-heavy offense.

Rather, the strength of the offense was the running back position. So, it makes perfect sense to dive into the zone-read, run-oriented offense immediately. If nothing else, Rodriguez was taking advantage of his strongest offensive position group-- the running backs. At the same time, Rodriguez could make the transition to the offense he is so well-known for quicker. Michigan was going to be a zone-read offense eventually. If they couldn't run a normal offense anyways, the immediate transition that Rodriguez made was an easy decision. Anyone suggesting he should have tried to run a pro-style offense is simply short sighted.


Transfers/The Barwis Effect

One of the biggest additions along with Rodriguez is strength and conditioning coach Mike Barwis. Barwis is an intense coach who is known across the country for his success in the weight room. With Barwis came a lot of change. Players were expected to dedicate a lot more time to strength and conditioning. Long gone was the time where players could go to practice and work out "on their own." If you don't want to put in the time with Mike Barwis, you won't be on the team.



The second major change was that offensive linemen were expected to run with everyone else. That was not the case under Lloyd Carr. Many of the offensive linemen signed up to play for the more relaxed Coach Carr. If you watched the transfers closely, most of them were offensive linemen: Justin Boren, Alex Mitchell, Jeremy Ciullo, Kurt Wermers, and Dann O'Neill. Rodriguez and his players have taken the high road, refusing to comment on players that have transferred. Rodriguez often says, "I only talk about players that play for Michigan."

Others close to the program have confirmed the change among offensive linemen running and the disdain many of the transfers showed to the change, particularly Boren, Mitchell, and Ciullo. But, that of course doesn't get printed.


Family Values


Relating to the transfer issue, Justin Boren made a quite a splash when he said after transferring, "I have great trouble accepting that those family values have eroded in just a few months." So, Justin transfers to Ohio State and days later his brother Zac, who didn't hold a Michigan offer, committed to Ohio State. I'm sure that was a big coincidence. Plus, he's in great shape!



One of Boren's main complaints was that the coaching staff used a lot of foul language. Well, you're not in junior high anymore. Coach Rodriguez has addressed this indirectly. Rodriguez and the coaches bring their entire families to practice. So, as Rodriguez said, if he feels comfortable enough swearing and yelling in front of his family (including his young son), could the stuff they are saying really be all that bad?

Kurt Wermers who transferred recently said, "Coach (Lloyd) Carr's staff was a whole different ballgame. It was like a family. But when Rodriguez came in, it was a whole different feeling." Days after Wermers transferred, it was announced that he was academically ineligible.

Sorry that you still have to go to class, Kurt.

The few guys that have been outspoken after their departures have created a lot of stir among the media. But, any player who transfers from a program is going to have some sort of agenda. Even so, not every transfer was entirely unhappy.

Toney Clemons said, "“I still love Michigan. It’s still my No. 1. Athletically, this is the right move for me."

Marell Evans recently transferred, going out the right way by saying of Rodriguez, ""He's a great man and I respect the man. He wanted me to think about this decision and said I'm a big part of the program. But I respectfully wanted to leave the program."

Clemons and Evans were nothing but grateful toward Rodriguez and the opportunities he gave them, but those comments were pushed to the fifth page of the sports section.

You ask current players and they speak nothing but highly of Rodriguez and his family values. On recruiting trips, Rodriguez and the coaches stand in front of all of the recruits and introduce them and their entire families. All of the coaches bring their families to practice and Schembechler Hall, something that reminds me of "family man" Tony Dungy. Players' families hold open invitations to attend practices.

All of this is clearly the work of a man who is intent on destroying the family values at the University of Michigan.


Speed, Speed, Speed

One notable difference that is not often discussed is the different type of players that Rich Rodriguez is bringing to Ann Arbor. Long gone are the days of 350 pound offensive linemen and half the roster coming from Michigan.

Of Michigan's incoming freshmen class, EIGHT come from Florida. Of Michigan's 2010 recruiting class, seven of the current commitments come from Ohio.

In-state recruiting is important. But now, Rodriguez is focusing on fast, talented states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Florida consistently produces the fastest players every year. It's no coincidence that Miami (FL), Florida State, and Florida always produce the best NFL athletes. Put those guys into a system like Rodriguez's that takes advantage of the athletic abilities of skill players, and you can't help but be optimistic.

Think back. How often were Michigan fans disappointed with a guy like Pierre Rembert or Justin Fargas who had tons of athletic ability that was never taken advantage of? Those days are gone. With Devin Gardner committed, Michigan fans can feel confident that they now have a system to take advantage of his abilities.

The Big Ten better take notice. Michigan will be back soon. Better than ever.


2 comments:

Unknown said...

Family values seem to be a strong value for Rodriquez - but what about personal development of the players? What about the Lloyd/Bo style of making Michigan men? In your opinion and what you have seen and read, is Rod taking on this tradition as well?

Matt Way said...

I'll address this in my next post.